Fort Forecast »


(Saved from the FortForecast wiki.)

What's happening?

What progress has been made on FortForecast, how can you help, who is contributing and how.

Wiki Cleanup

The wiki is, of course, a work in progress; these are some issues with existing content that need to be resolved:

  • The Civilization main page needs some clarification in terms of rationale/etc.; see the talk page for details

Who's working on it?


When will it be done?

It should be done sometime before September 17th when Hypothesis goes back to school.

Update: Clarified the connection to online organizations in the rationale page for Civilization, still needs the paragraph about artifacts moved somewhere more appropriate or spun off into its own section. Hypothesis September 10, 2017, at 09:47 AM

Update: Copied the robustness section on the talk page and put it on the main page. Hypothesis September 15, 2017, at 01:24 AM

Magic Fucking Point System Modeling

Different designs for MFPS need to be modeled and observed to see which one we would like to use (if any) for FortForecast. This will involve hardening up the expected features of FortForecast and its underlying platform Civilization enough to design a model. After that multiple plausible models will be designed and tested through simulation to see which ones lend themselves best to our purposes.

Who's working on it?

Nobody, yet.

When will it be done?

Since nobody is working on it, it's difficult to say. But if something preliminary in this space doesn't appear within two months of September 9th 2017 we should be extremely concerned.

UPDATE: MFPS should be designed last after the rest of the system is built, therefore we're looking more in the 6-12 month window, depending on when we expect to have a beta ready. Hypothesis September 10, 2017, at 06:16 AM

Determine a sane model for group prediction software

Besides Metaculus (archived) the team hasn't really studied very much good prediction aggregation and discussion software. Good Judgment Project is a plausible good source to investigate given its association with Philip Tetlock. The Design Inspirations page needs more examples of good prediction aggregation software and communities, along with explanations of what they do right and wrong. Ideally it would be possible to get expert comment from someone who is familiar with the field.

Who's working on it?

Hypothesis September 10, 2017, at 07:10 AM

When will it be done?

Again, should ideally have some progress on this within two months from September 9th 2017.

Update: Added analysis of Good Judgment Open to Design Inspirations. Hypothesis September 10, 2017, at 09:41 AM

Welcome to the internal development wiki for FortForecast. Right now it's confined to just the handful of people working on the project, but later on it can probably be converted into something that satisfies the general wiki portion of FortForecast.

The read password is “Thus I Refute Thee”. Please be mindful of who you share it with.

There is also an IRC channel at #fortforecast on Freenode (archived).


The mission of the FortForecast project, and how it compares with the mission of LessWrong.

Civilization (software)

Civilization forum software project goals, features, progress.


What should FortForecast look like on top of the Civilization platform, how should it be run, how does it choose goals, who can join?


Links to articles, blog posts, videos, and other things which are interesting reading/viewing in relation to FortForecast.